AFTER THE STORM : THE WAY FORWARD FOR INDIA

I remember seeing photos from Wuhan during the early part of 2020. The city  looked as if it had been affected by a ghost. Deserted streets and soulless markets in the world’s most populous Country! Never had I imagined that these photos were to become a reality in my own life , my own country. Daily counts of infected people and the deceased has become a part of our daily lives. And we at our homes can do nothing about it but pray that our “Corona Warriors” , i.e. Doctors,nurses,policemen,NGOs,civilian administration, defence forces, et al. get us out of the deluge with the least scars possible. 

Winston Churchill’s famous lines “ Never waste a good crisis “ is now more apt than it was ever. There is no doubt that we would come out of this storm one day. But what then ? What should India do so that this crisis doesn't go to waste ?

So lets start with the economy because as  Bill Clinton had said “It’s economy, stupid!” The plight of migrant workers, the sheer fall of crude oil prices , the bloodbath of stock markets, the steep rise in unemployment have exacerbated an already battered economy. And it cant be revived just by the honest efforts of the people buying liquor in large quantities so that their states earn some tax revenue out of it. More needs to be done. It is anybody’s guess that a fiscal stimulus of 1.7 trillion rupees (0.8% of GDP) is inadequate but there is no consensus among economists as to how much money would be needed to pump prime the economy. The million dollar question is , should the government ask the  RBI to start its printing press and hand over money to it? It is said that RBI and government are like husband and wife and so I wish not pander into someone’s personal affairs.Let them decide. 

The workers are the oxygen to India’s economic lungs, i.e. the MSMEs and the agriculture. MSMEs are the workhorse of the economy employing 11 crore people and if they shut down we might stare blank at our dream of making India a $5 trillion economy. There are suggestions that the government should provide guarantees to the loans to MSMEs. Quite a convincing argument per se. It is in this context that governments of UP and MP have started a reform of labour laws to unshackle the investment environment in the so called BIMARU states. Relaxed labour laws attract more investment , more growth, more wealth generation and more prosperity . This neo-liberal virtuous cycle has been tried and tested across the world. But this virtuous cycle is coupled with a vicious cycle of relaxed labour laws, more worker exploitation, more wealth in the hands of few and more marginalisation of these weaker section. This cycle too has been tried and tested since the times of Industrial revolution. So a blanket removal of provisions under Factories act is not wise and a more balanced and nuanced approach is necessary.

Now agriculture, shall we? The agricultural sector  has been more or less resilient in the face of adversity. But the problem of rabi harvest due to exodus of migrant workers is causing immense pain to the farmers. And they are relying more on machines for the harvest. Automation is well and good to increase the productivity. But if there is a mismatch in  the pace of automation and the pace of population growth, then it would be a problem as these workers are less likely to get jobs in their home states that have lacked industrial investment since the dawn of independence. The steps by UP and MP government to exempt the farmers from the clutches of APMC mandis is meticulous in the face of looming food security challenges. And this should ease the mismatch in supply and demand for crops, fruits and vegetables. I hope that this step becomes irreversible.

Finally lets take the healthcare component of our country. Indian governments have been indulging in the unpardonable crime of spending around 1% of GDP on healthcare. The result is for all of us to see. If not for the lockdown, only god could have saved us from this apocalypse ! A research shows only a third of indians prefer public hospitals for treatment regardless of their affordability. After the storm, a significant boost to the health infra is needed, particlulary at the level of PHC and CHC which cater to the majority of the population. An increased health insurance cover , number of medical colleges and a dedicated health policy to fight another such pandemic is need of the hour.

After we get our own house in order , let’s broaden our horizon and look at India’s world and its role in the global world order post the pandemic.

By providing HCQ drugs to more than 120 countries, India has shown that with great power comes greater responsibility. This is in stark contrast to the foreign policy of the middle kingdom , for whom with great power comes greater arm twisting. China’s dubious and deplorable role in causing and spreading the pandemic is for all to see. It has undermined WHO , did not allow discussion on COVID19 at the UNSC till the time it was the chair , sent faulty Rapid antibody testing to the world including India and is shamelessly aggravating the situation in South China sea which it claims to be its own part by drawing some random line comprising 9 dashes. Former Foreign secretary, Vijay Gokhale has referred to Xi Jinping as "a matter of state security" and he is right so . Even the domestic audience is not happy with Xi’s response and he has been called as an “ emperor without clothes” by his own country’s critics.

The US has upped the ante against China with Trump addressing it as “Chinese virus” , talked of holding to account China and floated an unverified theory of the virus being leaked out of a Wuhan lab. Anti china rhetoric would be the defining factor in the coming US elections with the presumptive Democratic candidate Joe Biden being referred as “Beijing Biden .” The US has withdrawn from the leadership position and China is working overtime to fill in the shoes.The concept of globalisation has taken a hit and we might enter a world of what Samir Saran and Jayant Sinha call “gated globalisation.”

Where does India find itself amidst the growing bipolarity? India has carefully crafted a measured response by not taking any country’s side but is trying to emerge as a third pole in view of its vision for a multipolar and a multilateral world. India should not be in any country’s camp but should be in different tents at different points of time. PM Modi has taken proactive steps to revive multilateral forums like SAARC, G20 and the NAM most recently. He had called out for the relook in the working of institutions like the WHO. I would say that the iron is hot and this is the right time to strike a sledgehammer on the matter of UNSC reforms. The world now needs countries like India, Germany and Japan  more than ever. These countries have proven their mettle in the face of adversity. And before the UN becomes redundant, it should better be reformed. 

India has traditionally been shy of calling Quad a military alliance but it is now time to give the alliance an implicit military character. Quad plus mechanism that includes South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand is doing the rounds in academic circles and requires due attention. Notably Quad member Australia has called for a probe into the causes of COVID19 pandemic and China’s role therein. This has infuriated Beijing which has threatened retaliation. 

Another Quad member, Japand has earmarked $2.2 Billion for Japanese companies having their bases in China to return to Japan. Here too India shoud use the evolving concept of para-diplomacy and allow its states to establish direct contacts with the companies planning to diversity their bases from China.

Clearly india has its task cut out in the post COVID world.

But when all this is over, we would open our eyes to a world that would be quite different from the one we had inherited. It would be more like starting off on a clean slate. And this is where India gets the opportunity to get its rightful place in the comity of nations. To write for itself a story on this new slate. A story that would be told and re-told by generations to come.