US-China-India : The geopolitical triangle that holds the earth

Utkarsh Dwivedi

21 June 2020

US-China-India

The geopolitical triangle that holds the earth

I happened to watch a debate yesterday on India Today that had three geopolitical heavyweights on the panel ; Prof. John J Mearsheimer ( a renowned ‘Realist’ scholar), Kishore Mahbubani ( ex-President ,UNSC) and Dr. Samir Saran (President, ORF). The debate was so insightful that it got me thinking and I decided to dedicate this essay on the thoughts of these great analysts. Ofcourse, you’ll find my own thoughts sprinkled across the essay. There would be moments when you might remark “Oh, what nonsense!” Yes, that’s where my thoughts are sprinkled upon.

For starters, let’s begin with the two elephants in the room : USA and China. Graham Allison’s concept of the Thucydides’ Trap talks of the inevitable conflict between a rising power and the status quoist power. History is testimony to the veracity of this theory. Be it conflict between Athens and Sparta in ancient Greece or between rising Germany and Britain that caused the world wars. The logic behind this is that once  hegemony of a country is established, it tries to twist the world order that favours its interests. And since “rebellion” is inherent in human nature, there is always a country that finds suffocating to abide by the rules of the game. It is here that it’s said that between US and China, the latter isn’t  just seeking a place at the high table along with US. It wants to turn the tables upside down. Kishore Mahbubani is sanguine about China’s rise and in his view China seeks “equality” with the US . On the other hand,  John Mearsheimer had predicted long ago that China’s rise would not be “peaceful’ as espoused by Deng Xiaoping. This was evident from the fact that China’s rise was not a conventional rise. It was a rise from the ashes. It was a rise that was based on the feeling of vengeance for what the Chinese call as the “ century of humiliation.” 

The US was not oblivious to this fact and hence US presidents tried to co-opt China as a junior partner by helping it rise economically and politically. Richard nixon accepted PRC as official china and gave it the UNSC seat . Jimmy Carter terminated di­plomatic relations with Taiwan. President George H.W. Bush washed away the sins of Tiananmen in 1989 and Bill clinton brought china to the WTO. Barack Obama had even talked of G-2 for direct US-China engagement. But the tides turned upside down with the election of Donald Trump. He knew China’s economic rise was challenging the hegemony of Dollar as the reserve currency and hence started a trade war. He even withdrew from the INF treaty as it did not include China and gave it a free hand to develop midsize ballistic missiles. And now with the Coronavirus pandemic, Trump has tightened the screws so hard on China that it has become difficult for Joe Biden to take a step back from this brinkmanship even though the Democrats have been historically soft on China. Graham Allison points out, in 12 out of 16 cases when there has been a case of Thucydides’s Trap , it resulted in a war. Hence will the US-China follow the same trajectory or arrive at some form of compromise is a wait and watch game.

Coming to the main course, India’s relations with both the powers have their own taste of history. Taking the USA first , the relations were fraught with mistrust in the 20th century when the USA desisted India’s call for “non-alignment” as an euphemism for “Align with the USSR.” It had even sided with Pakistan in the 1971 war. But as they say in international relations , you dont have permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests. Since the liberalisation era, India’s closeness with USA has much increased. The main factors behind this bon homie were the collapse of USSR and China, that was rising at a

 breathtaking pace.India’s then Prime Minister, PV Narsimha Rao decided to embrace the US and started  the Malabar Naval exercise , which served as the foundation of what we now call as the “Quad.” Since the last decade this relationship has seen an exponential rise in comfort and cooperation between the two countries starting with the signing of US-Indo Civil Nuclear Deal to India joining COMCASA ,LEMOA and being granted the STA-1 status that gives India access to critical US defence technologies. The Indo-pacific as a concept has gained credence in recent times due to evolving economic importance of Indian ocean and Chinese aggression particularly in the South China Sea. Though the contours of this concept aren't clear with no consensus between India and US on what constitutes the Indo-pacific geographically, the Quad is still seen in strategic circles as ABC (Anybody but China) club. This is irking the Chinese and they are hell bent on India to be “strategically autonomous.”

This takes us to the second part of the main course: The Sino-indian relationship. India was one of the first countries to recognise PRC as the “official China.” With the start of post world war II era on “Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai” it ended up in 1962 on similar patterns as can be seen between any two brothers - a property dispute! The Sino-Indian border was a part of the troubled British legacy and a failed consensus on what constitutes the boundary led to a surprise attack by the Chinese when the US and USSR were at the cusp of a nuclear war- the Cuban Missile Crisis . This was to avert any Soviet support to India. It ended with India being defeated. This created a generation of Sinophobic Indian diplomats and academia who dominated the mandarins of foreign policy for decades. The Meeting of then PM Rajiv gandhi with Deng marked a new chapter in the Sino-indian relation with no shots being fired at the boundary since 1975. But as foreign secretary Nirupama Menon Rao said China is a “fat man in an elevator” who is continuously expanding and suffocating others present in the elevator. In an interview with Karan Thapar, she pointed out that some kind of deceit and betrayal is inherent in the Chinese nature. She remarked “You dont get you what you see.” The recent clash at Galwan shows that the Chinese have mastered the art of fighting and grabbing territories without firing a single shot - the salami slicing technique. Samir Saran calls China as “middle kingdom with a medieval mindset” using sticks with nails and barbed wires on them. Though Kishore Mahbubani asserts that India and China are civilizational states and decisions cannot be taken on the basis of events of the recent past. But as pointed out by Samir Saran, if the relations between India and China are to be kept warm, the onus squarely lies on China simply because its the bigger of the two powers , as is the case of India vis-a-vis its smaller neighbours. I too, am of the opinion  that history is moving at a neck-breaking speed and it is natural that the events of recent past would inevitably dominate the decision making in the upper echelons of MEA and PMO.  These actions have created a new generation of Sinophobics who now see Sino-indian relation as a “zero sum game.” Chinese export of the pandemic has further expedited this view.

So how does this trinity of geopolitics be balanced or to put more realistically , managed. The dessert part of this essay attempts to address just that. Kishore Mahbuabani points out that USA since history has put its interest above everything else and though it might now be hedging against India to counter China, it may one fine day start engaging with China, say on the lines of G2 and then India would be left out high and dry. Here too, John Mearshemer has a solid counter argument. He says “there is no need for you to trust he United States. Foreign policy doesn't works on trust, but on national interest.” It is in the interest of India and US both to come together to counter the aggressive rise of China under its Emperor Xi Jinping. Given India’s asymmetry with china vis-a-vis its economic and military prowess, and the lack of will on the part of China to engage with India , in the words of Dhruv Jaishankar, “external balancing is the only option India is left with.” An alliance with US irks the Americaphobics in India who talk of “strategic autonomy.” But dont forget to look at the bigger picture. Strategic autonomy is a means, national interest is the end. Of course, that does not mean India becomes a vassal state of USA . Even former foreign secretary Shyam Saran has remarked that better relations with US give India more room to manoeuvre vis-a-vis China. But there’s another argument. Recently excerpts from the book” the room where it all happened” by ex US National Security Advisor John Bolton , shockingly reveal that Trump had “pleaded” Xi to buy more agricultural products and also to use “Chinese might” to influence media in favour of Trump to improve his chances of re-election. Now these revelations need to be taken with a pinch of salt given the ignominy with which Bolton was removed from office, but if there’s even an iota of truth in it, then Xi has played his cards well. Because now he knows his aggression against India may not invite any punitive action by USA.

Nonetheless, China’s rise is shaking the foundations of the liberal world order and the sweet talk of Mahbubani who spoke as a “Singaporean diplomat with a chinese passport” isnt sounding reassuring. And as Mearsheimer had said, he would not place his chips against USA as history bears testimony to the fact that nations who had dared challenge the US have found themselves into the “dustbin of geopolitics” , be it USSR, Imperial germany, Nazi germany or imperial Japan. India has its task cut out. A closer US relations with a modus vivendi with the Chinese that ensures India does not become a “collateral damage” in this Cold war 2.0 would be most pragmatic. But whatever has to be done, it needs to be done fast. 2049 is the deadline for Xi to get China its rightful place in consonance with the vision of “the middle kingdom.” It is also the deadline for USA to retain its global hegemony and for India to ensure that it’s rise is not just limited to South Asia as a region. Finally, I would refrain from making any predictions here , because of the things that have gone wrong most of the times in my life are - predictions!