Ten lessons for a post pandemic world - Fareed Zakaria

Publisher : Allen Lane (8 October 2020); Penguin Random House

Language : English

Hardcover : 320 pages

One very important thing that I recently learnt about book reviewing is to always review the book by its credentials and not by the reputation of the author. This is important because at the back of my mind, I always knew whose book I was going to review and the “reputation bias” did affect me , knowingly or unknowingly. Hence , even at the risk of being “too critical” , I decided to imbibe this indispensable piece of advice.

Coming straight to the book, my initial remarks would be that the book deserves the praise that it’s getting. It is a short and easy to read book , jam packed with information, quotes of scholars , attractive lexicons ,etc. However , a very disappointing aspect of the book is the title itself. It is misleading to some extent. I say this because you could change the title to “Ten lessons for a post pandemic America” and the content of the book would remain the same. Though the author does dwell on inter-country analysis on various aspects, but soon the inter-country analysis changes to intra-country analysis with complete focus on US and its systems. Now I don’t know whether to blame the author for this or not, since his being a US citizen would have definitely affected his world view while writing this book. I would like leave it on the wisdom of the readers to take a view in this regard.

The book starts with an interesting argument about how the governments across the world have invested incessantly in building vast militaries to tackle the large threats and yet everyone found themselves unprepared to tackle a tiny microbe.This is on top of the fact that history of the world is replete with pandemics mentioned as early as in Homer’s “Iliad” and Thucydides’ “history of the Peloponnesian war.” For those who have read about Plato, know that the watershed that led him to write his magnum opus “The Republic”, was Athens’ defeat at the hands of Sparta. Few would know that just before the war, Athens was struck by a plague and the outcome of the war could have been different if not for the attack by the microbe.

If past is any prologue, the author reminds us that the current times are highly unpredictable and his first lesson is to “buckle up” to face the coming uncertainity. He brings out new a trilemma- no system can be open,fast and stable at the same time. To deal with this, his second lesson is that quality and not quantity of the government matters. This is corroborated by the fact that countries like Taiwan, South koera managed the pandemic well even with small governments while countries like Brazil,USA and India faltered even with large governments. He further explores American federalism,its bureaucracy, ideological differences amongst White house, Congress and states that further leads to stalemate in taking decisive,quick actions. In my view, if anything, the pandemic has seen governments take a front seat in this crisis and the post pandemic world might see the “Leviathan” taking even greater control over human lives.

When the state takes the front seat, it is seen the market takes the back seat. And the author’s third lesson is that “markets are not enough.” Capitalism has been laid naked in this time of crisis. It has been constantly increasing economic ineqality between people as well as between nations. Profit oriented health policy of Capitalist nations like US where “hospitals are run like hotels” have reinforced the need for an equitable,inclusive,accessible and affordable healthcare. Linked to the same is his seventh lesson - inequality will get worse. Here he has taken a wide definition of inequality- of amongst people, nations and companies. This class divide was evident in the phenomenon like election of Donald trump, brexit,etc but what the pandemic has done, in author’s words is that “it has accelerated history.” In India too, a recent Pew research finds out that poverty has increased and there is a decline in the number of middle class. If the trend continues further( which in all likelihood it would), it would certanily threaten the foundations of future societies( read Aristotle’s theory of revolution).

His fourth lesson is for people to trust the experts and vice versa. The former can be seen in the widespread disinformation and mistrust in experts . The experts themselves were divided as to how to approach this pandemic and could not communicate effectively even basic advices regarding wearing mask or following social distancing. The latter advice for experts to think about the people comes from the fact that an element of elitism hits a person when he rises the socio-economic hierarchy, a general lack of empathy creeps , detaching him from the crude realities of the ground. 

His fifth lesson- life is digital, is a truism in the post pandmeic world. From “work from home” to telemedicine to international conferences to online classes, black mirrors are the new normal. Infact, a Financial times article says that this WFH has been enjoyed by people as they have found time for themselves and their families amidst a busy world. But the other side of the story too requires due consideration. Yuval Noah Harari points out the dangers of excessive digitalisation and the accumulation of data in the hands of the government.YNH coins the term “Homo Deus” for god like superhumans powered by AI. Another problem highlighted by the author is the “problem of leisure”,i.e we could become “slaves of time without purpose.” But finally the author ends on importance of homo sapiens by writing “intelligent machines might make us prize our human companions even more, for the creativity, whimsy , unpredictability , warmth and intimacy.”

His sixth lesson has a tad misleading title “ we are social animals.” By the title, I thought it would be about finding time for our loved ones,realising their importance in the times of lockdown . But what the chapter actually deals with is our tendency to live in agglomeration in urban cities and he argues that “For a virus to become a full blown pandemic,it has to find its way to an urban setting.” No doubt it is the cities that have knelt down before the virus in the greatest sense. The author calls for innovative urban models to deal with future pandemics which are less microbe and more people friendly.

The last three lessons delve into my favourtie arena of international relations and I found them really exhilarating. The eighth lesson says “globalisation is not dead.” He argues that global supply chains make us vulnerable to critical shortages like medical goods, rare earth minerals,etc.He rightly points out that fear of globalisation is actually fear of dependence on China. But in defence of globalisation he rightly argues - “The efforts against globalisation run up against one of the most powerful forces on the planet-comparative advantage .”If Globalisation was the cause of spread of the virus then, it will also be the solution. Infact Thomas Friedman has said that this is the best time for science and globalisation for collective efforts to find a solution to this pandemic. Take the example of Astrazeneca vaccine(recently in news). It is developed in Oxford, produced in India and supplied to the world. 

His penultimate lesson is that the world is becoming bipolar. After the 9/11, 2008 crisis and now the pandemic, the chinks in US armour stand exposed. By all trends China is poised to overtake US in economy by 2028, particularly after its swift recovery in the wake of the pandemic while the US is still struggling. In PPP terms it is already the largest economy. In the recent Alaska showdown between the china and the US, the  Chinese representative put it bluntly and crudely to Antony blinken’s(US secretary of State) face that “ the US does not have the qualification to talk to China from a position of strength.” This has earned him wide popularity amongst the Chinese people and media. Now the author predicts that direct confrontation between the two powers is highly unlikely. But I would differ. What the US is targeting are China’s core and existential concerns regarding xinjinag, tibet, Hong kong and Taiwan . And realism in foreign policy predicts that to protect one’s core interests a country would go to war.

Talking of realism, this brings us to the last lesson “ sometimes greatest realists are the idealists.” This is nothing but an extension of the chapter on globalisation. He says countries like USA and Britain failed due to inherent problems and not because of multilateralism.He argues that “the best way to deter China is to strengthen the system that constrains it.”He emphatically calls for America to lead again even though he accepts that an American dominated world order is no longer possible.

The book’s conclusion succintly summarises the book’s arguments and presents a wholesome picture in front of the reader before he puts down the book. It concludes with the lesson that “Nothing is written.” We have the power to take the world on a course and direction that we desire.

All in all, the book has definitly enhanced the small kitty of my knowledge and I would recommend this book to anyone who’s ineteresed to know and better understand  the world we live in and what may lie ahead for humanity.